Buying in Dubai in Late 2026: What the Third Quarter Means for a European Investor
Real Estate in Dubai, purchase on off-plan, rental rental and taxation : this is the numbers from third quarter of 2026 change for a Belgian, French, Swiss, or Luxembourg investor who wants to invest in Dubai.
Buying in Dubai in late 2026 remains a good option for a European investor, but the landscape has changed: the market has cooled, developers are more flexible, and buyers have regained some bargaining power. The third-quarter figures, released in early October, clearly show this: approximately 90 billion AED in transactions and a market that is rebalancing after the record-breaking year of 2025.
If you live in Belgium, France, Switzerland, or Luxembourg and are looking at real estate in Dubai, here’s what these numbers mean for you—in plain language, without jargon.
News: A Quieter Third Quarter, a Market That Remains Deep
Between July and September 2026, Dubai recorded approximately 90.6 billion AED in real estate transactions, or nearly 21,070,000,000 € (90,600,000,000 AED). The residential sector alone accounted for 72.6 billion AED, or approximately 16,880,000,000 €, representing nearly 34,000 sales.
Volumes are lower than in 2025. Regional conditions have made buyers more cautious since the spring. In the first nine months of the year, the market still totaled 292 billion AED, or approximately 67,900,000,000 €.
Three numbers matter to you:
- Nearly 7 out of 10 residential sales are for new construction. New construction remains the driving force behind the real estate market in Dubai.
- More than 8 out of 10 transactions are for less than 3,000,000 AED, or approximately 698,000 €. The core of the market is one- and two-bedroom apartments, not the
- Resales remain active, with more than 10,000 transactions. Liquidity is strong.
As for pricing, Mohamed Alabbar, founder of Emaar, mentions a possible adjustment of 5 to 10
% by 2027, as new units come onto the market. He sees this as a “good balance” between supply and demand, not a reversal. S&P also expects a gradual correction, which will be more pronounced for apartments than for single-family homes.
What This Means for a European Investor
You’re negotiating again. In 2024 and 2025, the best projects were snapped up within a few hours. Today, you have time to compare options, ask questions, and discuss the price or terms. This is a clear advantage for buyers in Brussels, Paris, Geneva, or Luxembourg who can’t respond within an hour.
Developers are more flexible. Payment plans spread out until delivery—and sometimes beyond—partial coverage of DLD registration fees, and targeted discounts: the terms are changing. For an off-plan purchase in Dubai, this is a game-changer.
Your return on equity can increase. With this approach, you initially commit only a portion of the total cost, with the remainder paid as the project progresses. With a more flexible payment schedule, your equity works more effectively. The goal is not to “speculate” on the market, but to optimize the return on the money actually invested.
Selecting the right property is more important than ever. As the market returns to normal, the gap widens between a good project and an average one. Location, developer, property type, and completion date: each of these factors influences resale and rental value.
Rental yields in Dubai remain attractive. A well-located apartment could yield a gross return of around 6 to 7 percent, or approximately 4.5 to 5.5 percent net after condominium fees, management fees, and vacancy periods. These figures are indicative and depend on the neighborhood and the type of property. In most major European cities, the net return is often lower once local taxes are deducted.
A Tax Lawyer's Perspective
In Dubai, individuals pay neither rental income tax nor capital gains tax. The main cost is the 4% DLD registration fee at the time of purchase. But Dubai’s tax system is only half the equation: the other half depends on your country of tax residence.
In France, the agreement with the United Arab Emirates provides for a tax credit equal to the French tax. In practice, your rental income is not taxed a second time, but it is taken into account when determining your tax rate. The property is also included in the IFI tax base if your net real estate assets exceed €1,300,000 (5,590,000 AED).
In Belgium, income from property in the United Arab Emirates is exempt under the tax treaty, but subject to the progressive tax system: it increases the tax rate applied to your other income. The property must be reported to the tax authorities.
In Switzerland, real estate held abroad is excluded from the tax base but is taken into account when determining the tax rate for both income tax and wealth tax.
In Luxembourg, the same principle applies: tax exemption subject to progressive taxation.
In all four countries, the principle is therefore similar: no double taxation, but an impact on your tax rate and tax returns you must not forget to file. The real question lies elsewhere: whether to buy in your own name or through a company, and how to arrange the transfer of ownership. Without a will registered in the Emirates, the estate is settled according to local rules, which may not necessarily align with what you’ve planned in Europe. This decision must be made before signing the contract, not after.
Things to Keep in Mind Before Shopping in Dubai
- The developer: track record of project completion, financial stability, escrow account registered with the RERA.
- The Schedule: Realistic Delivery Date and Provisions in the Event of
- Resale before delivery: Most developers require that a portion of the price be paid in advance. Check this threshold before
- Currency exchange: The dirham is pegged to the euro. The real exchange rate risk lies in the euro’s value against the dollar.
- Your tax returns: You must report the property and its income in your country of residence each year.
- The real estate agent: He or she must be registered with [Ask for their number].
Investing in Dubai with Leximmo
The real estate market in Dubai in late 2026 rewards well-prepared buyers. At Leximmo (RERA 62696), we work with more than 300 developers, including Emaar, Sobha, Ellington, Arada, Meraas, and Nakheel, and we carefully select projects. The firm was founded by Sofien Semichi, a tax lawyer: real estate and the tax laws of your country of residence are addressed together from the very beginning.
Do you live in Belgium, France, Switzerland, or Luxembourg and want to buy property in Dubai? Message us on WhatsApp at +971 52 214 3535 or visit leximmo-dubai.com.
